It's that time of year again. Time to give my annual Oscar picks. If you are looking for Best Sound Editing however, find another blog, nerd. These are for the main categories only. For those of you experiencing my picks for the first time here's how it works: I will break each award up by category, do a recap of the nominations, and do a short summary on who WILL win and who SHOULD win. I will also provide a full disclosure if I have not seen a particular movie. Got it? OK here we go!!!
BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES:
Bradley Cooper-"Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis-"Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman-"Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix-"The Master"
Denzel Washington-"Flight"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have not seen Flight or The Master.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
There's never been an actor who's won three Oscars in the Best Actor category....until now. Daniel Day-Lewis absolutely deserves the Oscar. His performance in Lincoln was flawless and this is one of those rare times were talent will decidedly trump popularity. It's the Irishman all the way.
WHO WILL WIN?
As excellent as Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper were, if anyone other than DDL walks away with the trophy it will be the biggest upset in the history of the Oscars. I just don't see that happening. Day-Lewis will take home his third trophy.
BEST ACTRESS
NOMINEES:
Jessica Chastain-"Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence-"Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva-"Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis-"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts-"The Impossible"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have not seen Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, or The Impossible.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Of the two films in this category I have seen, Jennifer Lawrence was head and shoulders above Jessica Chastain. Her performance in SLP was a raw, multilayered, and visceral performance that amazes me for a woman of twenty-two. If she does win, Lawrence will be the youngest person ever to win the Best Actress Award.
WHO WILL WIN?
As much push as Jennifer Lawrence is getting right now, I have a scary feeling that popularity is going to rule the day and youth is going to play a factor in this choice and that Jessica Chastain is going to win. If it does happen it will be quite the injustice too. As good as Chastain was, Lawrence was better. Hopefully Lawrence will have other chances.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES:
Alan Arkin-"Argo"
Robert De Niro-"Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman-"The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones-"Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz-"Django Unchained"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I have not seen Argo or The Master.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Of the three films I've seen, Waltz's performance in Django Unchained was the best. De Niro's portrayal was very good but not Oscar worthy and I thought Tommy Lee Jones's performance was WAY overhyped. Waltz is quickly becoming one of my favorite character actors and I'd love to see him take home another golden statue.
WHO WILL WIN?
You could literally through a dart at a board for this category. This is one of the more difficult winners to predict because none of the actors in this group are a stone cold lock. However, I think popularity again will rule the day and since De Niro hasn't been nominated in over twenty years and hasn't won for thirty-two I'm guessing the little gold man goes to Jack from Meet the Parents.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES:
Amy Adams-"The Master"
Sally Field-"Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway-"Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt-"The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver-"Silver Linings Playbook"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I haven't seen The Master or The Sessions.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
I really feel bad for Amy Adams. Besides from being incredibly hot and talented this is like the fifth time she's been nominated for an Academy Award. If it wasn't for Anne Hathaway I'd be rooting for Adams all the way even though I haven't seen the movie. As good as Sally Field was as the emotionally tortured Mary Todd Lincoln, Hathaway's performance in Les Miserables was brilliant. My girlfriend--er--Anne Hathaway should win.
WHO WILL WIN?
Much like the Best Actor category this one is a no brainer too. I don't see how anyone besides Hathaway walks off the stage without the Oscar. Hathaway's Fantine brought a depth and emotion to the character rarely seen on film. Talk about an emotional and physical transformation! Hathaway all the way.
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES:
Michael Haneke-"Amour"
Benh Zeitlin-"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Ang Lee-"Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg-"Lincoln"
David O. Russell-"Silver Linings Playbook"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I havent' seen Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, or Life of Pi.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
Ben Affleck. Look I know I haven't seen Argo yet (although I plan to tonight) but I'm going to trust what I've read, heard, and talked to my friends about on this one. A couple of my friends have seen the movie and say it is a total joke that Affleck isn't nominated. Given his track record for directing I'm inclined to agree. Gone Baby Gone and The Town are fantastic and I find it highly unlikely that a movie with a Rotten Tomatoes approval rating of 96% is bad. But I could be wrong. I'll find out tonight. Either way though, the Academy ought to be ashamed for leaving him AND Kathryn Bigelow off the ballot.
WHO WILL WIN?
Again another tough call because Affleck isn't in the bunch. I'd say it is between Spielberg and Lee. I think Spielberg wins his third here because Lincoln was so well reviewed and by all accounts is a much more accessible film than Life of Pi. Don't count out David O. Russell though. He's been nominated before and the lack of a front runner in this category may lean in his favor.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES:
"Amour"
"Argo"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
FULL DISCLOSURE: I haven't seen Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, or Life of Pi.
WHO SHOULD WIN?
For my money the film that should win is Django Unchained. It was one of my favorite films last year, contained great performances, a kick-ass story, fantastic cinematography, and turned a cold and calculating eye on slavery. A film like this will never win however because Hollywood is full of stuffed shirts who usually don't "get" Tarantino's movies. Also the tragic Sandy Hook shooting didn't lend any help to the campaign either.
WHO WILL WIN?
I'm going to say Argo even though I haven't seen it yet. The various award shows over the last couple weeks show the writing on the wall, and all the words point to Argo being the big winner tomorrow night. If Argo fails to pull it off, Lincoln should wrangle the trophy. But my money is on Argo.
Well there you have it! Check back next week when I review the highs, lows, and surprises of this year's Oscars.
Every year I say I'm going to make an effort to watch more of the nominated films, and every year I fail. In fact if not for Silver Linings Playbook I wouldn't have seen any this year, which is exactly the same number I saw last year.
ReplyDeleteJust going by what I have seen (clips/previews) and read (both reviews and hype), I agree with a lot of your picks. You know I think MY girlfriend - er, Jennifer Lawrence - should win Best Actress. Obviously I'm a little biased there. From what I've seen from Daniel Day-Lewis, both from this film and prior ones, he's a complete and total lock.
As for best picture - man, I just don't know. Too small of a sample size. I loved Silver Linings, but it wasn't one of those films that left me in awe. Maybe one of the others would, but I can't say at this point.
I can and will say this - for the first time in a while, I'm actually looking forward to the Oscars. I just hope nothing stupid happens.
It's the Oscars. Something stupid is bound to happen. Lol.
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